At 80 years old, Vietnam’s top political leader Nguyen Phu Trong’s untimely death, during his third term as the General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, should come as a warning to Americans with another term with either President Biden (age 81) or Former President Trump (age 78).
In 2021, Mr. Trong assumed his third term as the General Secretary, breaking from the Vietnamese Constitution, which imposes a two-term limit of ten years. The Party’s approval of this constitutionally unprecedented act signaled its inability to find new successors to Mr. Trong’s role. As a result, his passing this year marked the beginning of a period of anxious waiting for organizations and businesses across the nation. Questions of anti-corruption campaigns, and US-Vietnam-China relations, among other strategic shifts in economic policies abound.
Just a few days before Mr. Trong’s death, Vietnam’s current President—a rather ceremonial role—assumed the position of interim General Secretary. Known for his background in the Ministry of Police, Mr. Lam has yet to discuss new policy preferences. And for the case of Vietnamese politics, the general population has been apolitical at the grace of a fast-growing economy—leaving policy discussions to their representatives in the political class.
It is ironic that I drew parallels between Vietnamese and American politics. For one, Vietnamese citizens don’t elect their President nor the Party’s General Secretary; their representatives do. Hence, they don’t—and can’t—vote on policy matters, ensuring the robust stability of the Communist Party in Vietnam.
The system outlined above might resemble the electoral college in America. However, in the US, the presidential candidates are shown on the ballots. And, Americans’ abilities to vote on policy matters make the stakes even much higher, considering the age of the Presidential candidates.
Therefore, the death of a top political leader for Vietnam might be less worrisome for citizens than the death of a top political leader in the U.S. in terms of consequential policy shifts. Biden stepping down as a Presidential candidate relieved Democrats of this risk. Had Biden not dropped his Presidential bid for 2024, voters of both parties would need to think hard not only about their Presidents (whose old age remains the biggest liabilities) but also about their Vice Presidents if their number 1 choice dies in office.
Voting for a Vice Presidential candidate in a general election is strange and risky at the same time. We all know VPs are supposed to echo the President’s policy preferences. That was why for the last four years, Kamala Harris struggled to create her own political footing. Her political stance doesn’t perfectly align with that of Biden—unlike Scranton Joe, she is from the most liberal part of California. But even then, serving as his VP, Harris never had a platform to argue her own stance to Americans, until now when she is number 1 on the Democrat ticket.
The same set of predicaments apply to the case of J.D. Vance as well. Trump is 78, and if he wins, he will be 79 when assuming office and 82 when he leaves the Oval Office. And although he survived an assassination attempt, the Secret Service can’t protect him from the wrath of old age. By then, if J.D. Vance assumed office, how would voters know what his policies are? J.D. Vance has been and will be campaigning on Trump’s policy. However, when given the chance to run the Oval Office without Trump, would Vance’s wild ideas come to life?
Before becoming the VP candidate for Trump, Vance criticized America for being run by “childless cat ladies,” basically arguing that Americans without children should not run for public office. Vance has also run with anti-feminist policies, stating that women’s advocacy to move into the workforce and the political class is an erasure of a dignified American family life.
And most importantly, Vance was anti-Trump. Would Trump supporters want to vote for a VP who could very possibly step into the President’s role with an anti-Trump mindset? Trump supporters should think long and hard about Vance’s prospects of running the Oval Office.
As a Vietnamese citizen, I am not voting in the upcoming 2024 election. However, as an active observer of such democratic processes, I can’t help but advise that Americans should not only keep in mind whom they are voting for as President but also whom they are voting for as Vice President. The world can no longer function on democracies that take bets on political leaders’ age and their deaths. Now that Biden has stepped down as a candidate, the political liability lies solely with Trump, a man who would never step down for the sake of the country or even his own party.